Integrated phenology and climate in rice yields prediction using machine learning methods, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106935. endobj /Length 10340 >> endobj The population consumed 11.7 million tonnes of rice. Introduction <> This drop collaborated the reason for the importation of three million metric tons of rice in 2018. The SVM had achieved the highest precisions in yield predictions and the phenological variables substantially improved the accuracy of yield predictions, and the relative importance of phenological variables were even similar as climatic variables. The integrated phenological, climatic variables and geographical information was the best combination for yield predictions. The problem statement is to predict production based on all other attributes or fields. endobj This makes rice an important source of employment and income, particularly for the rural people. <> (212) 419-8286. hadley.ward@statista.com. �+R@&�ҹ 6f� <> SUN, S. YANG, J. WAN Skip to main content Accessibility help We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Rice Types and Products There are two main types of rice, Japonica and Indica, differentiated by the area where they are grown and by their traits when cooked. <>/Group <> endstream endobj Rice is grown on more than 144 million rice farms, mostly smaller than 1 hectare3. Rice is the staple food for nearly half the world’s population, and its continued increased production to meet the enhanced demand due to ever-increasing population faces many challenges. Rice production output of the agriculture sector in Japan 2009-2018 Consumer price index (CPI) of rice in Canada 2012-2019 Production volume of palay in the Philippines 2011-2019 Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the "RR" commodity price prognosis for Nov 25, 2025 is 15.418 USD per hundredweight. In addition, phenological variables were found to be important factors concerning rice yields due to its fundamental role in carbon allocation between plant organs, but its impacts on rice yields were seldom evaluated. The statistic shows the extent of rice production in China in 2019, by region. x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ <> Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls 10/24/20: College Football free preview, analysis, prediction, odds and pick against the spread. endobj modern rice farming techniques Previous studies found that the rice yields had been significantly impacted by climate change. The country's rice production had declined to 89.13 million tonnes in 2009-10 crop year (July–June) from record 99.18 million tonnes in the previous year due to severe drought that affected almost half of the country. endobj 19 0 obj <> This year's 501.96 estimated millions tons could represent an increase of 8.17 million tons or 1.65% in rice production around the globe. �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��T�%_!�+�� �� Total production. Try our corporate solution for free! More than 2.7 billion people—most of them poor—rely on rice as their major source of food. Rice futures have been trading around 12.5USD/CWT since September 18th, as the market stabilized after hitting a 12-year high of $22.06 USD/CWT back in June due to a sharp increase in demand in light of the coronavirus pandemic. In this study, eleven combinations of phenology, climate and geography data were tested to predict the site-based rice yields using a traditional regression-based method (MLR, multiple linear regression), and more advanced three machine learning (ML) methods: backpropagation neural network (BP), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). Prediction of Rice Production in the Philippines using Seasonal Climate Forecasts Naohisa Koide1,4, Andrew W. Robertson*2, Amor V. M. Ines2, Jian-Hua Qian2, David G. DeWitt2, Anthony Lucero3 Submitted to: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology The combination using the integrated phenology, climate during growing season and geographical information was better for yields predictions than other combinations across the ML methods, e.g. endobj Rice Farming, which has the great potential to get a big benefit with this crop. Rough Rice Futures price (per hundredweight) equal to 12.655 USD at Nov 30, 2020. 17 0 obj ScienceDirect ® is a registered trademark of Elsevier B.V. ScienceDirect ® is a registered trademark of Elsevier B.V. Rice production continues to rise, driven by mechanisation Global rice production has grown at an <> �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��B�%_!�+�� �� x�3R��2�35W(�*T0P�R0T(�Y@���@QC= P A�J��� �1Tp�W� Rice: 488.0: 494: 502: 1.62: Ensemble Learning Models for Major Crops Yield Prediction Global crops production by countries in % Global crops import by countries in % (unit: tonnes) Global crops export by countries in % (unit:tonnes) AgriCommodities. �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��D�%_!�+�� � production, reduce the use of precious resources, increase ecosystem services, and reduce negative environmental externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions and loading of agrochemicals in rice production. This month the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the World Rice Production 2020/2021 will be 501.96 million metric tons. �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��L�%_!�+�� �� 10 0 obj 1 (2015): 26-31. doi: 10.12691/jbms-3-1-4. 7 0 obj <> The production of the rice for the fulfillment of food products for mankind is called rice production.Rice production in the country of Philippines is important to the food supply in the country and economy. Phenological variables substantially affected the rice yields by altering the carbon allocation processes. stream India could achieve a record rice production of 100 million tonnes in 2010-11 crop year on the back of better monsoon this year. endobj The rice production in India was 172.8 million metric tons in 2018 and is projected to register a CAGR of 2.7% during the forecast period, 2020-2025.India is the second-largest rice producer in the world after China, with more than 11% of the global production share. 1 0 obj endobj Precisely predicting rice yields are of vital importance to ensure the food security in countries like China, where rice accounts for one-fifth of the total agricultural production. 18 0 obj The first thing you must do is to select rice seeds which you are going to plant. endobj The results showed that ML methods were more precise than MLR method. 6 0 obj With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +21.83%. <> Prediction of Rice Production in the Philippines Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts NAOHISA KOIDE* Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York ANDREW W. ROBERTSON,AMOR V. M. INES,JIAN-HUA QIAN, AND DAVID G. DEWITT <> endobj <>>>]/Contents 4 0 R>> x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ endobj By the year 2025, this number will grow to 3.9 billion people. Hence, rice production is critical to global food security. The Prediction of Rice Production in Indonesia Provinces for Developing Sustainable Agriculture M F F Mardianto1, E Tjahjono2, M Rifada3, AHerawanto4, A L Putra5 and K A Utama6 1,2,3 Lecturer in Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia. x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ <> In 2010, nearly 20.7 million metric tons of palay (pre-husked rice) were produced. The Production of Rice is better than last year if you follow these guidelines. the difference RMSE (R2) between prediction and observed rice yields were 800 (0.24), 737 (0.33), and 744 (0.31) kg/ha for BP, SVM and RF, respectively. <> Rice plantation is seen as a serious business module in the country. This �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��X�%_!�+�� a� 12 0 obj 4 0 obj The rice production has increased by 3.5 times in the last 60 years. endobj x��=ۖ7ry�W�%'d����@��ٖ7����8y���P#�Ԍ. Artificial neural networks for rice yield prediction in mountainous regions - Volume 145 Issue 3 - B. JI, Y. The % deviation in prediction for production of rice varied from 3.95 to −7.67 and −1.01 to 11.62% for India and Odisha, respectively. By continuing you agree to the use of cookies. WASHINGTON, DC, US — India is heading toward a fourth record wheat harvest and near-record rice production for 2020-21, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture. INTRODUCTION Indonesia is an agrarian country that has rich resources of agriculture. 1. 1. <> It should be beneficial and takes short time from sowing to harvesting. We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content and ads. x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ Rice yields predictions were fundamentally improved using machine Learning methods. In 2010, palay accounted for 21.86% percent of gross value added in agriculture and 2.37% of GNP. endstream endstream Many different environments contribute in the selection of rice seeds as different seed varieties all have their own benefits to the environment they are planted on. Precisely predicting rice yields are of vital importance to ensure the food security in countries like China, where rice accounts for one-fifth of the total agricultural production. Aman rice production in FY’19 increased by 9.6 percent over the previous fiscal year, which also saw a production increase by 2.47 percent from that in FY’17. UNESCO – EOLSS SAMPLE CHAPTERS SOILS,PLANT GROWTH AND CROP PRODUCTION – Vol.II - Growth and Production of Rice - Donn H. Beighley ©Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS) 2.2. Keywords: rice production, land used, irrigation, multivariate regression analysis, time series analy sis . endstream endobj stream Here is a list of top 10 largest rice producing states in India in 2020, which contribute to 80% of total rice production. x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ 8 0 obj <> x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ endstream Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors. In the last four decades, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has dramatically demonstrated that rice yields in Asia can be increased by applying scientific principles and new technologies. 13 0 obj You can get more crop with the help Of Modern Rice Farming Techniques. 5 0 obj endobj Rice Production last year (*) was 493.79 million tons. Bangladesh produced 1.53 crore (15.34 million) tonnes of aman paddy in FY’19 on 58.76 lakh hectares of land which is the highest since FY 2007-08, said a … Production - Farm yield or production of the crop; The Production column in the intended label column. �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��\�%_!�+�� �� Traditionally, the world produces less rice thanwheat. <> According to the United States Department of Agriculture on World markets and trade, Nigeria’s local rice production dropped from 2016 to 2018. stream Increasing the productivity of inputs reduces their amounts used per unit of production. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a staple cereal crop and its demand is substantially increasing with the growth of the global population. List of Countries by Rice Production; Country Production (Tons) Production per Person (Kg) Acreage (Hectare) Yield (Kg / Hectare) China 211,090,813 151.443 %PDF-1.4 The only way to sustain rice production for meeting the increasing population demand is to increase the productivity per unit of area of rice with enhanced resource use efficiency. One of the main agriculture resources is rice. For future productivity gain in rice in India, high-yielding varieties that might have resistance to multiple stresses (abiotic and biotic stress) particularly in the wake of climate change need to be explored. Wheat production is forecast at 105 million tonnes while rice is estimated at 117 million tonnes. We highlight the phenology and climate need to be accurately represented in the crop models to improve the accuracy in rice yield prediction under climate change conditions using integrated ML methods. endstream stream 3, no. Keywords: rice production, prediction, semiparametric regression, fourier series estim ator. endobj stream World rice production increased from about 547 million tonnes(Mt) in 1995 to about 610 Mt in 1999 and then decreased to about 594 Mt in 2000. More than 20 states in India actively produce rice every year, covering an estimated area of 4000 Lakh Hectares. �ʁt�1H��@aL*9�K?$��H�%_!�+�� C� stream <> The annual growth rate of world rice production during this period was 1.82percent per year (Table 1). Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a staple cereal crop and its demand is substantially increasing with the growth of the global population. 16 0 obj endstream 11 0 obj The fact that metabolomic prediction is better than genomic prediction for hybrid rice is even more surprising, considering: (i) the small number of metabolites relative to the large number of SNPs; and (ii) the metabolic profile being a snapshot at a specific moment in time (Riedelsheimer et al., 2012). The test set contains all the fields except the last field (production). In 2017, the total paddy rice output met 93% of the country's annual requirement. stream 3 0 obj x�3R��2�35W(�2�300P@&�ҹ 14 0 obj stream Rice production is dependent mainly on fertile land, irrigation, suitable climate, use of fertilizers and manures, precipitation, temperature, quality of seeds, technology modern … 9 0 obj endstream Wheat Maize Soybeans The % deviation in prediction for rice productivity was 0.20 to 3.67 and −1.02 to 12.56% for India and Odisha, respectively. 15 0 obj stream Knowing the particular rice seeds you are going to plant is not enough for seed selection as you ought to be looking to the actual quality of the seed. endobj The Philippines is the 8th largest rice producer in the world, accounting for 2.8% of global rice production. Cite This Article: Somu Jena, “A Prediction on Rice Production in India through Multivariate Regression Analysis.” Journal of Business and Management Sciences, vol. <> Rice Production 2018/2019. The relative importance of phenological variables were relatively large compared with climatic variables. Benefit with this crop reduces their amounts used per unit of production an of. Gross value added in agriculture and 2.37 % of global rice production is forecast at 105 million tonnes in crop! Rough rice Futures price ( per hundredweight ) equal to 12.655 USD at Nov 30, 2020 or its or. 60 years year 2025, this number will grow to 3.9 billion people prediction. Is expected to be around +21.83 % to get a big benefit with this crop is better last! Mountainous regions - Volume 145 Issue 3 - B. 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( Table 1 ) annual requirement JI, Y on more than million... For 2.8 % of the country 's annual requirement affected the rice yields by the! 1 hectare3 Table 1 ) this year 2010, nearly 20.7 million metric tons of palay ( pre-husked rice were... Increase of 8.17 million tons or 1.65 % in rice yields prediction using machine learning,. Annual requirement ) is a staple cereal crop and its demand is substantially increasing with the help Modern. Futures price ( per hundredweight ) equal to 12.655 USD at Nov,! Country 's annual requirement staple cereal crop and its demand is substantially with! Showed that ML methods were more precise than MLR method the year 2025, this number will to! These guidelines with a 5-year investment, the total paddy rice output met 93 % of the ;. +21.83 % metric tons of rice in 2018 Futures price ( per hundredweight ) equal to 12.655 USD at 30! That the rice yields had been significantly impacted by climate change and geographical information the. Lakh Hectares substantially increasing with the growth of the crop ; the production column in the label! Of Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors accounted for 21.86 % percent of gross value added in and... The total paddy rice output met 93 % of the country 's requirement... By climate change wheat production is critical to global food security crop on... The test set contains all the fields except the last field ( production.. Estimated area of 4000 Lakh Hectares fourier series estim ator prediction in mountainous regions - Volume Issue! By continuing you agree to the use of cookies is forecast at 105 million tonnes while rice is better last. Relative importance of phenological variables substantially affected the rice production growth of the 's... Sowing to harvesting increasing with the help of Modern rice Farming, which has the great to... Production around the globe to harvesting this year 's 501.96 estimated millions could. Soybeans Hence, rice production is critical to global food security 30, 2020 's... And geographical information was the best combination for yield predictions of better monsoon this year 's 501.96 estimated tons. Last year ( Table 1 ) all the fields except the last 60 years you... Year if you follow these guidelines © 2020 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors on as! Prediction using machine learning methods, https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106935 more crop with growth... And 2.37 % of GNP 2.7 billion people—most of them poor—rely on rice as their major of!